Demographic and Geographic Changes in POAG Between 2011 and 2050
To examine how demographic and geographic variations in U.S. populations from 2011 to 2050 will contribute to estimated numbers of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) cases, investigators conducted this cross-sectional study. They found that despite the high prevalence of POAG in African Americans and Hispanics, the largest group in the United States is currently among older non-Hispanic white women, but is expected to shift to Hispanic men over the next few decades.
Investigators used prevalence rates from selected population-based studies to estimate the number of persons aged 40 years and older with POAG in the United States. For calculation, they multiplied the age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific prevalence rates by the U.S. Census estimates and projections from 2011 to 2050. Main outcome measures are estimated numbers of persons with POAG in different age, sex, and racial/ethnic groups and total and per capita POAG rates by state.
The investigators reported that in 2011, 2.71 million persons in the United States have POAG, with the highest estimated number among populations aged 70 to 79 years (31%), women (53%), and non-Hispanic whites (44%). The largest demographic group is non-Hispanic white women. In 2050, an estimated 7.32 million persons will have POAG, with the highest number among populations aged 70 to 79 years (32%), women (50%), and Hispanics (50%). The largest demographic group will shift to Hispanic men. During the next 40 years, the highest per capita POAG rates will double in New Mexico, Texas, and Florida.
Given this shift, the greatest yield from screening programs is likely to be in those states with high numbers of non-Hispanic white women and Hispanic men.